Prime Highlights-

• Standard Chartered expects UAE business activity to strengthen, supported by resilient non-oil sectors and easing regional tensions.
• Domestic consumption, investment and improving trade flows are set to drive economic momentum in the UAE.

Key Facts-

• The UAE’s PMI remained above the 50-mark, signalling continued expansion in private sector and non-oil business activity.
• The bank expects lower oil prices, stronger employment and rising investment to support growth, while oil exports have largely recovered.

Background–

Standard Chartered’s research team expects UAE business activity to pick up pace in the third quarter of 2026. The bank pointed to easing regional tensions and growing attention on how fast the Gulf economy can bounce back.

According to the bank, the UAE’s Purchasing Managers’ Index held above the 50-point mark in June. That level points to ongoing growth in non-oil sectors, and it held steady even during the most intense stretch of recent regional conflict.

Spending and investment within the UAE have powered most of this growth so far. Trade with other countries should recover more slowly as regional shipping routes get back to normal.

Rola Abu Manneh, who leads Standard Chartered’s operations across the UAE, Middle East and Pakistan, said the PMI figures point to real staying power in the country’s private sector and non-oil economy, even with regional turmoil weighing on the wider picture.

Steady demand at home, paired with a slowly improving export picture, gives a more hopeful outlook heading into the next quarter, she said. She also pointed to these trends as proof of the UAE’s strong economic footing and its ongoing role as a hub for trade and investment flows.

Three factors, in the bank’s view, will fuel growth over the next three months: lower oil prices, a job market that’s picking back up, and rising investment tied to regional governments working to diversify their trade routes.

The bank’s report also flagged that UAE oil exports have climbed back to near-normal levels. That recovery followed the partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz along with earlier moves to redirect oil shipments elsewhere in the region. Exports from other Gulf nations, by contrast, are picking up at a slower rate.