Fitch Affirms Saudi Arabia's A Plus Rating, Cites Strong Fiscal Buffers

Prime Highlights-

Fitch affirms Saudi Arabia’s A Plus sovereign credit rating with a stable outlook.

Kingdom’s government debt and net foreign assets remain stronger than similarly rated global peers.

Key Facts-

Fitch projects Saudi Arabia’s real GDP growth to rebound in 2027 as shipping flows normalize.

Moody’s affirmed Saudi Arabia’s rating at Aa3 with a stable outlook earlier this year.

Background-

Fitch Ratings has affirmed Saudi Arabia’s A Plus sovereign credit rating with a stable outlook, pointing to strong fiscal buffers and solid external finances despite regional tensions and temporary trade disruptions.

The agency said the Kingdom’s government debt and sovereign net foreign assets remain considerably stronger than similarly rated peers, backed by substantial deposits and other public sector assets, though oil dependence and governance indicators continue to weigh on the rating.

The affirmation follows a period of regional conflict that disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Fitch concluded that Saudi Arabia’s economy and public finances stayed resilient throughout the disruption, supported by strong fiscal and external balance sheets that outperform typical A and AA rated sovereigns.

Angus Blair, CEO of Signet, said the affirmation reflects the Kingdom’s swift response to the regional conflict earlier this year and its ability to recalibrate government spending while keeping Vision 2030 on track.

Fitch expects real GDP growth to slow to 0.6 percent in 2026 due to trade disruptions, though oil exports continued through the Kingdom’s East-West pipeline during the conflict.

Growth is projected to rebound in 2027 as shipping flows normalize and giga-projects advance under continued Public Investment Fund spending.

Abdullah Almeer, assistant professor of economics at KFUPM Business School, said the affirmation shows how the Kingdom manages to balance short-term geopolitical pressures against its longer-term structural reform agenda under Vision 2030.

Fitch projects government debt to rise to 41.3 percent of GDP by the end of 2028, though the ratio would remain well below the median for similarly rated sovereigns.

Foreign exchange reserves should hold broadly steady, and the Kingdom’s banking sector held up well through the regional conflict without needing central bank intervention.