Prime Highlights
- The IMF has upgraded Saudi Arabia’s economic growth forecast for 2026 to 4.5%, citing higher oil production, strong domestic demand, and ongoing economic reforms.
- The fund expects broader Middle East and Central Asia growth to strengthen over the next two years, supported by similar drivers.
Key Facts
- Saudi Arabia’s economy is projected to expand by 4.3% in 2025 and ease to 3.6% in 2027, with the IMF’s revised forecast 0.5 percentage points higher than its October estimate.
- Global economic growth is expected at 3.3% in 2026, with risks including trade tensions, geopolitical uncertainty, and the uncertain impact of artificial intelligence on productivity.
Background
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its economic growth forecast for Saudi Arabia to 4.5 percent in 2026, supported by higher oil output, strong domestic demand and continued economic reforms. The updated estimate is 0.5 percentage points higher than the IMF’s earlier projection made in October, according to its latest World Economic Outlook Update.
The IMF expects the Saudi economy to expand by 4.3 percent in 2025 before growth eases to 3.6 percent in 2027. The revised outlook is broadly in line with recent World Bank projections. The World Bank estimates Saudi Arabia’s gross domestic product will grow by 4.3 percent in 2026 and 4.4 percent in 2027, following an estimated 3.8 percent expansion in 2025.
The IMF also said economic activity across the Middle East and Central Asia is likely to pick up over the next two years. The region’s growth is expected to go up from 3.7% in 2025 to 3.9% in 2026 and 4.0% in 2027. Higher oil production, steady local demand and structural reforms are seen as key drivers.
In the Middle East and North Africa region, growth is projected to improve as well. The IMF expects the region’s economy to grow by 3.4 percent in 2025, rising to 3.9 percent in 2026 and 4.0 percent in 2027.
The IMF forecasts the world economy to grow 3.3% in 2026. It warned that this growth depends on ongoing technology investment and supportive government policies. The fund also pointed out risks from rising trade tensions, geopolitical uncertainty, and unclear productivity gains from artificial intelligence.
